ADP is out with its revised, independent jobs forecast this week and it shows continued challenges for Main Street.  As with past reports (before they revamped the product to produce a truly independent alternative to the monthly BLS reports), the latest data shows a continued divergence in the economy, with larger businesses adding jobs while smaller firms shed them.

According to ADP, private employers created 132,000 net jobs in August. But while large firms (those with more than 500 employees) added 54,000 jobs, small businesses with less than 20 employees contracted by roughly the same amount, losing 47,000 jobs. As …

(Read More)

The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) has kicked off a rigorous debate over the $80 billion in new funding for the IRS. Republicans argue the funds will be used to audit the middle-class while the Biden Administration assures us that nobody under $400,000 will see increased audit “rates.”

So where does the truth lie?  In short, the IRA will substantially increase the number of IRS audits over the next decade, including higher numbers of audits for middle-income taxpayers and Main Street businesses. Here’s the breakdown.

The IRA allocates some $80 billion over the next decade in additional funding to the tax-collecting agency, with …

(Read More)

The Main Street business community today sent a letter to lawmakers with a simple message: many of the proposed tax policies in the Inflation Reduction Act would harm individually and family-owned businesses and should be rejected.

The letter was signed by more than 70 trade associations representing millions of Main Street businesses from every corner of the country and every sector of the economy, including NFIB, the National Restaurant Association, the Associated Builders and Contractors, the National Association of Homebuilders, and others.  It makes clear that the Inflation Reduction Act, which the House is expected to take up …

(Read More)

With inflation, we’re getting less for more. We have an armored car business, so fuel costs are more expensive. Our largest armored car contract is with the federal government and we forecast those rates out for five years at a time, …

(Read More)

Want to understand what’s happening in the economy?  Look to inflation-adjusted data.  Wage levels and company revenues are reported in nominal terms, while the GDP estimates are adjusted for inflation.  That’s why they appear to be headed in different directions when, in fact, it’s all going south.

It’s also the reason inflation is something to be avoided, and something to be addressed quickly when it does appear.  When you dump trillions of new dollars into the economy for a year or two, people and businesses feel wealthier and flush with cash.  They spend more, increase commitments, and hire more workers.

So the …

(Read More)