In October we chatted with Piper Sandler’s Don Schneider to preview what the One Big Beautiful Bill would mean for tax season. Don forecast one of the largest refund seasons in history, with the typical refund level expected to grow by nearly $100 billion.
Now the firm is out with new analysis confirming those predictions. It also details how Main Street businesses can expect to benefit.
Based on the latest numbers, Main Street business owners will receive an estimated $27 billion in additional tax refunds during the 2026 filing season. These immediate savings stem from the restored bonus depreciation, immediate expensing, and expanded interest deduction limits made effective starting last year.
This chart is a nice illustration of how Main Street will benefit from the tax bill this spring, with the orange bars representing pass-through business relief. While the business component is concentrated at the upper end, that’s the natural consequence of a tax system where business income is reported on individual returns, and where higher investment levels translate into higher deductions. (Curious about the lack of relief in the 80th-90th percentile bar, though?)
The table also makes clear that the OB3 provided broad-based tax relief to Americans across the income spectrum, with the vast majority of the tax relief this year (83 percent) going to families, and most of that going to the bottom 90 percent of taxpayers.
Finally, these numbers reflect the pending refunds coming this year, but that’s not the whole picture. OB3 made permanent many provisions benefiting families and Main Street businesses – bigger child tax credits, larger standard deduction, 20 percent small business deduction, increased expensing, etc. — and those provisions will keep taxes low for years to come.
As we’ve said repeatedly, tax cuts don’t sell themselves. Taxpayers need to be reminded that they are paying less due to the action Congress took last summer. These pending refund checks are as tangible as tax policy gets, and they are a great opportunity for proponents of the tax bill to help Americans connect the dots on tax policy.