Latest on Payroll Tax Hike and Extenders

Earlier today, the Senate voted earlier on its version of the “extenders plus” bill passed by the House a few weeks back. The vote, on a motion to waive a Budget Act point of order, failed miserably (45-52), indicating the Senate Leadership has a long way to go before they gather the sixty votes necessary to move forward.

With this morning’s vote behind us, the process moving forward is becoming clearer–Finance Chairman Max Baucus (D-MT) is expected to introduce a new substitute today. According to BNA:

Baucus is expected to draw up a new substitute amendment that will be a slimmed-down version of what the Senate defeated. That plan would have added $84 billion to the federal deficit, a figure that Republicans, and some Democrats, said was too high to stomach. Baucus has previously said that he would continue to work with senators of both parties to find 60 votes. Issues that could be modified to secure votes include Medicare reimbursement rates for physicians, unemployment insurance benefits, Medicaid funding to states, and possibly language making it more difficult for S corporations to avoid paying employment taxes.

As BNA indicates, the new effort will likely include a modified payroll tax hike. As with the House-passed provision, however, the new tax has been written behind closed doors and without the benefit of public scrutiny. It might be better than the flawed House effort, but we simply won’t know until it’s offered.

The next key vote will take place tomorrow, when the Senate considers Senator John Thune’s (R-SD) alternative “extender plus” package. This package includes all the tax extenders the business community wants, but strikes all the tax hikes the business community opposes (including striking the $11 billion payroll tax hike). Instead, all the tax relief and spending in the package are offset with spending cuts. As with today’s vote, Senator Thune is not expected to get 60 votes tomorrow, but we’re betting he does better than the 45 votes Senator Baucus got today.

Meanwhile, Senator Olympia Snowe (R-ME) continues her fight on behalf of S corporations. As CongressDaily reported this morning:

Snowe is upset about an $11 billion tax increase on small services firms organized as S corporations; Baucus is preparing some tweaks to that provision, and the chamber’s 63-33 adoption of an amendment she co-sponsored to establish an office within the Treasury Department to help homeowners struggling with mortgage payments can’t hurt. Democratic aides said they still have some work to do on their side of the aisle before working to assuage GOP holdouts.

The S corporation community owes Senator Snowe a big debt. Meanwhile, with the first Baucus substitute gone and the second version to be introduced, we will just have to wait to see what they have in mind.

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