As expected, House Leadership released its health care reform plan yesterday — America’s Affordable Health Choices Act of 2009 (H.R. 3200). As you can imagine, there are any number of provisions to explore in a 1000-page health care bill, but for S corporations, the big four items appear to be:
- The new health insurance exchange;
- The surtax on high income individuals;
- The health insurance tax credit for smaller firms; and
- The payroll tax penalty for non-participating firms.
Supporters of the plan argue that the combination of the health care exchange and the small business tax credit will provide a net benefit to S corporations and other small businesses. Opponents point to the higher taxes and penalties for firms that choose not to offer health care plans to their employees.
They also question whether the overall plan will actually save money. The CBO estimates it will cost money after all - more than $1 trillion dollars. Of particular importance is the response of the moderate Democratic Blue Dog Coalition.B As BNA reported this morning:
Rep. Mike Ross (D-Ark.), chairman of the Blue Dog Health Care Task Force, said his group was committed to passing health care reform. He also said that “reform that does not meet the president’s goal of substantially bringing down costs is not an option.”
We are not in a position to judge how successful the exchange will be. The only example is the one in Massachusetts and that one has both supporters and detractors.B As for the other three provisions, here’s our best summary:
Surtax: Starting in 2011, a surtax of 1, 1.5 and 5.4 percent will be applied on “modified” AGI exceeding $350,000, $500,000 and $1 million respectively (joint filers).B Unless OMB certifies that the bill’s changes to Medicare and Medicaid result in an additional $150 billion in cost savings, the surtax will rise to 2, 3, and 5.4 percent starting in 2012. If OMB certifies these savings exceed $175 billion, then the lower two surtaxes go away.
Small Business Tax Credit: For employers with fewer than 25 employees and who offer them qualified coverage, they are eligible for a tax credit equal to a percentage of their health care costs. The credit starts at 50 percent for employers with fewer than 11 employees and average annual compensation of less than $20,000. It phases out for more employees and higher salaries. A firm with 25 employees and/or average compensation of more than $40,000 gets no credit.
Payroll Tax Penalty: Firms that do not pay for at least 65 percent of their employees’ qualified coverage are subject to a payroll tax penalty. The tax starts at 2 percent of payroll for firms whose payroll exceeds $250,000 and rises to 8 percent for firms with payrolls exceeding $400,000. It is unclear whether the payroll tax applies to all payroll or just the amount exceeding the threshold.
Suffice to say that the complexity of each provision is worth its own white paper. Trying to gauge the interaction between them is simply impossible. Here are some observations and questions:
- How does the payroll tax penalty work? If an employer does not offer qualified coverage to his/her employees, does the tax apply to all payroll or just the amount above the threshold How does the bill define firm? By entity or by establishment?
- The plan penalizes employers for expanding their payroll. If the employer offers qualified coverage, raising wages would reduce their credit. If they don’t, increased wages will increase their penalty. Either way, the plan raises the marginal cost of hiring new employees and offering them higher wages.
- The higher surtax rates can be avoided if OMB finds additional savings from Division B in the bill. How is OMB supposed to measure these savings and attribute them to the Division B? If the CBO failed to measure these savings, how will OMB?
- The bill appears to add to the deficit, especially in later years. Is this the plan, or will additional cost savings be offered to make it budget neutral?
- What about the need to balance the budget, reform the Alternative Minimum Tax, extend some or all of the expiring tax relief, or make the corporate tax code more competitive? How will Congress accomplish all these things if it spends $1 trillion on health care reform?
The House Ways and Means, Labor, and Energy and Commerce committees will begin marking up their respective portions of the bill tomorrow. Expect these markups to be extremely contentious. The Speaker’s goal is to get the bill through the full House before the August recess. Given the primary importance both the Speaker and the President have placed on health care reform, we expect this goal will be met. Exactly what changes are necessary to get the plan through the House, however, remains to be seen.
The Surtax and Small Business
The fight over who will pay the surtax has begun. The Ways and Means Committee published its estimates that only 1.2 percent of all taxpayers will pay the tax, and only 4.1 percent of all small business owners.
Our immediate reaction was that small business owners are 3.5 times more likely than the average taxpayer to pay the tax, but even that observation misses the larger point. It’s not the number of taxpayers affected that counts, but rather the amount of economic activity subject to the higher rates.
As we’ve pointed out previously, about two thirds of all small business income is taxed at the top two rates, so any surtax applied to upper incomes is likely to tax a majority of small business income. Moreover, those rates are already scheduled to rise, resulting in a double hit on upper income business owners in 2011 and beyond.
|Marginal Tax Rates Under HR 3200 (Joint Filers)
|Marginal Rate (2009)
|Marginal Rate (2011)
|Marginal Rate (2012)
This chart requires several caveats, including pointing out that the surtax applies to “modified” AGI rather than taxable income, but the general point is valid — HR 3200 will return marginal tax rates back to where they were before we started cutting rates in the 1980s.
In addition, this chart doesn’t include the HI tax that now applies to wage income, it doesn’t adjust for taxing “modified” AGI, which includes income from capital as well as labor, it doesn’t include the impact of restoring PEP and Pease, and it doesn’t include state and local taxes. All told, the effective marginal rates on higher incomes will easily exceed 50 percent under this plan.
One last point. When taxing the rich is debated, the discussion usually ignores the actual amount of taxes being paid. Your S-CORP team thinks that’s a mistake.
For example, the CBO reports that the top fifth of taxpayers pay, on average, $64,000 in federal taxes every year. The top one percent pay over half a million.
How much more will HR 3200 add to this burden? And at what level of tax do taxpayers, including small business owners, stop being productive and choose to do something else with their time?